{"brief":{"id":"0d387022-3252-4c4a-a665-97264db85ad0","target_id":"7a3f58ac-cae8-4caf-b98e-70187f781b6e","geo":"Ohio","brief":{"trends":["Mortgage rates moved higher this week: the 30-year fixed rose from 6.36% (May 14) to 6.51% (May 21), putting renewed pressure on buyer purchasing power statewide.","Home price appreciation has moderated to a sustainable single-digit pace (3-6% YoY range) after the double-digit surges of 2021-2022, with no broad price declines evident.","Inventory is recovering but remains structurally tight at 2.69 months of supply statewide, keeping the market seller-tilted despite more listings than a year ago.","Sales velocity signals a split market: 28.8% of Ohio homes still close above list price, while 23.6% of listings take price reductions, suggesting pricing accuracy is now the key differentiator for sellers.","Northeast Ohio metros (Cleveland, Akron, Canton) are tracking the statewide pattern: modestly more supply, slightly longer days on market, and competitive demand concentrated in turnkey homes near job centers and strong school districts.","Buyer negotiating leverage has improved compared to 2021-2022 peaks, particularly for homes that are not move-in ready or are priced above the local median, where inspection credits and contingencies are becoming more common.","The rate environment remains elevated relative to 2020-2021 lows but is below the 2023 peak near 7%+, a dynamic that has pulled some sidelined buyers back into the market without igniting a new price surge."],"sources":["Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), weeks of May 14 and May 21, 2026, via mortgage_rates tool","Ohio REALTORS 2025 Annual Market Report, as surfaced by perplexity_search","Redfin Ohio Market Overview, March 2026, as surfaced by perplexity_search","Zillow Ohio Market Report, January-March 2026, as surfaced by perplexity_search","U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates: state-level query attempted but geography match unsuccessful; state-level demographic baseline not included this week"],"summary":"Ohio's statewide housing market continues to favor sellers heading into late May 2026. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up 15 basis points week-over-week to 6.51%, adding pressure to affordability. Median home values are rising at a moderate single-digit pace, inventory remains below the six-month balanced-market threshold, and sales volume is up slightly versus a year ago. Northeast Ohio mirrors the statewide pattern: more supply than in 2021-2022, but not enough to flip pricing power to buyers. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes in strong school-district corridors are still moving quickly and attracting competitive offers.","key_stats":[{"label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of May 21, 2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool"},{"label":"15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of May 21, 2026)","value":"5.85%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool"},{"label":"30-Year Fixed Rate Change, Week-over-Week","value":"+0.15 pp (from 6.36% on May 14 to 6.51% on May 21)","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool"},{"label":"Ohio Median Sale Price (March 2026)","value":"$262,900, up 5.1% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Average Home Value","value":"$234,035, up 3.4% year-over-year","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Active Listings (December 2025)","value":"28,122 homes, up 2.3% year-over-year","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Months of Supply (December 2025)","value":"2.69 months (seller-tilted; 6 months = balanced)","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Homes for Sale (March 2026)","value":"37,952, up 4.3% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Total Home Sales (full-year 2025)","value":"126,015 homes sold, up 1% vs. 2024","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Average Sales Price (full-year 2025)","value":"$256,775, up 6% vs. 2024","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Median Days on Market (March 2026)","value":"47 days, up 2 days year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Median Days to Pending","value":"23 days","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Homes Sold Above List Price (March 2026)","value":"28.8%","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Sale-to-List Price Ratio (end of 2025)","value":"0.989 (essentially full-price offers)","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"label":"Ohio Listings with Price Reductions (March 2026)","value":"23.6%","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"news_items":[{"url":"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms","date":"2026-05-21","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool","headline":"Ohio mortgage rates tick higher mid-May 2026 as Freddie Mac PMMS records 6.51% on 30-year fixed"},{"date":"2026-05","source":"Redfin Ohio Market Overview, as reported by perplexity_search","headline":"Ohio active for-sale inventory climbs 4.3% year-over-year in March 2026, per Redfin, yet supply stays under three months"},{"date":"2026-05","source":"Ohio REALTORS Annual Report, as reported by perplexity_search","headline":"Ohio REALTORS confirm 126,015 homes sold statewide in 2025, up 1% from 2024, with average price rising 6% to $256,775"},{"date":"2026-03","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search","headline":"Nearly one in four Ohio listings (23.6%) carried a price reduction in March 2026, signaling wider pricing dispersion between well-priced and aspirationally priced homes"},{"date":"2026-05","source":"Zillow Ohio Market Report, as reported by perplexity_search","headline":"Zillow data show Ohio median days-to-pending at 23 days and sale-to-list ratio near 0.989, reinforcing that correctly priced homes are still moving close to full ask"}],"notable_changes":["The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 15 basis points in a single week (May 14 to May 21, 2026), the largest weekly move in recent data, which signals potential near-term buyer hesitation if the trend holds.","Ohio active-listing counts rose 4.3% year-over-year in March 2026 per Redfin, the most notable supply improvement in recent months, though months of supply remains well below the six-month balanced-market benchmark.","Ohio full-year 2025 home sales crossed 126,000 units, a 1% gain over 2024 and a sign that volume is stabilizing after the rate-driven slowdown of 2023-2024.","The spread between homes sold above list (28.8%) and homes taking price reductions (23.6%) has narrowed considerably versus 2021-2022 norms, reflecting a market that is competitive but no longer uniformly frenzied.","Median days on market ticked up 2 days year-over-year to 47 days in March 2026, confirming a gradual but consistent shift toward slightly longer selling timelines at the state level."]},"perplexity_calls":1,"census_calls":3,"pmms_calls":1,"tokens_in":4986,"tokens_out":2432,"duration_ms":64723,"created_at":"2026-05-25T19:55:33.747826+00:00"},"ideas":[{"id":"da064c1b-057d-4880-8615-3b2368029fe6","title":"Why That 15-Basis-Point Rate Jump Matters More Than It Looks for Ohio Buyers","description":"A deep-dive explainer for Ohio homebuyers on how the week-over-week rise in the 30-year fixed rate from 6.36% to 6.51% translates into real monthly payment increases at Ohio's median price point. The piece walks through concrete dollar figures, explains why even small rate moves compress purchasing power in a market where the median sale price is already up 5.1% year-over-year, and offers actionable steps buyers can take—such as rate locks, ARMs, and the 15-year fixed at 5.85%—to manage the pressure.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Rate Change, Week-over-Week","value":"+0.15 pp (from 6.36% on May 14 to 6.51% on May 21)","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool"},{"stat":"15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of May 21, 2026)","value":"5.85%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via mortgage_rates tool"},{"stat":"Ohio Median Sale Price (March 2026)","value":"$262,900, up 5.1% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:56:02.581689+00:00"},{"id":"53ce4caa-8385-47e4-b0aa-238974e34250","title":"Ohio's Split Market: How to Tell If Your Home Will Sell Above List or Take a Price Cut","description":"An analysis for Ohio sellers unpacking the widening divide between the 28.8% of homes closing above list price and the 23.6% of listings forced into price reductions. The article identifies the specific factors—school district quality, move-in readiness, proximity to job centers, and initial pricing accuracy—that determine which side of the split a listing lands on. Includes a practical pre-listing checklist and pricing strategy guidance grounded in current statewide data.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio Homes Sold Above List Price (March 2026)","value":"28.8%","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Listings with Price Reductions (March 2026)","value":"23.6%","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Sale-to-List Price Ratio (end of 2025)","value":"0.989 (essentially full-price offers)","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:56:02.581689+00:00"},{"id":"1aba905e-ef95-4539-8467-80314aff4c64","title":"Ohio Inventory Is Growing—So Why Is It Still a Seller's Market?","description":"An explainer for buyers and sellers on why a 4.3% year-over-year rise in Ohio active listings and 37,952 homes for sale has not shifted negotiating power to buyers. The piece contextualizes the numbers against the 2.69-month supply figure, explains what the six-month balanced-market benchmark means in practice, and forecasts what level of inventory growth would be needed to meaningfully shift conditions in Northeast Ohio metros.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio Homes for Sale (March 2026)","value":"37,952, up 4.3% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Months of Supply (December 2025)","value":"2.69 months (seller-tilted; 6 months = balanced)","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Active Listings (December 2025)","value":"28,122 homes, up 2.3% year-over-year","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:56:02.581689+00:00"},{"id":"283f9261-25d3-429e-9a20-9f1a6b1f9ded","title":"Ohio Home Prices Are Up—But the Days of Double-Digit Gains Are Over. Here's What That Means for You","description":"A market outlook piece for both buyers and sellers examining Ohio's moderated appreciation trajectory. Using the gap between Zillow's 3.4% average home value gain and Redfin's 5.1% median sale price gain alongside the full-year 2025 average sales price of $256,775 (up 6%), the article explains why single-digit appreciation is healthier and more sustainable, what it signals about the market's direction, and how buyers can use this window before another rate-driven affordability squeeze.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio Average Home Value","value":"$234,035, up 3.4% year-over-year","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Median Sale Price (March 2026)","value":"$262,900, up 5.1% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Average Sales Price (full-year 2025)","value":"$256,775, up 6% vs. 2024","source":"Ohio REALTORS, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:56:02.581689+00:00"},{"id":"97d6bb91-21d6-491a-93b3-2aba6dc9ed05","title":"Homes Are Sitting Longer in Ohio—What 47 Days on Market Really Signals for Buyers and Sellers","description":"A data-driven guide examining what the uptick in Ohio's median days on market to 47 days (up 2 days year-over-year) means in practice, contrasted with the median days-to-pending of just 23 days for correctly priced homes. The article helps sellers understand that overpricing now carries a measurable cost and shows buyers where patience and negotiation can create leverage, particularly for non-turnkey properties priced above local medians.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio Median Days on Market (March 2026)","value":"47 days, up 2 days year-over-year","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Median Days to Pending","value":"23 days","source":"Zillow, as reported by perplexity_search"},{"stat":"Ohio Listings with Price Reductions (March 2026)","value":"23.6%","source":"Redfin, as reported by perplexity_search"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:56:02.581689+00:00"}]}