{"brief":{"id":"86ab6186-a0ce-46d7-86eb-5115c1b8c215","target_id":"7a3f58ac-cae8-4caf-b98e-70187f781b6e","geo":"Ohio","brief":{"trends":["Mortgage rates reversed recent modest declines, jumping 15 basis points in a single week to 6.51% (30-yr fixed) as of 5/21/2026, the highest reading in at least two weeks and a headwind for buyer purchasing power statewide.","Akron led the entire U.S. in Q1 2026 home-price appreciation at 12% year-over-year, driven by persistent inventory shortages. Signals suggest Northeast Ohio's relative affordability versus coastal markets continues to attract relocation buyers.","Ohio statewide inventory is gradually recovering (active listings up 4.3% year-over-year as of March 2026) but remains well below pre-pandemic norms, sustaining seller leverage and multiple-offer conditions on competitively priced homes.","Transaction volume remains historically depressed. Approximately 179,000 Ohio closings in 2024 represent a 24% drop from 2019 levels, suggesting many potential sellers and buyers remain sidelined by the rate environment.","Ohio's price-to-income ratio of 2.6x (2024 data) is the worst since 2005, disproportionately affecting first-time buyers who lack existing equity to offset elevated financing costs.","Cleveland's ~$150,000 median attracts remote workers and Gen Z buyers priced out of national markets, contributing to above-trend demand in an already inventory-constrained environment.","Toledo posted 33.4% cumulative price growth since 2022 among tracked Ohio metros, underscoring that the affordability squeeze is not limited to the state's largest cities.","National April 2026 existing-home sales rose a modest 0.2% to a 4.02-million annual pace; the strongest regional price growth was concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, consistent with Ohio's outperformance."],"sources":["Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), weeks of 5/14/2026 and 5/21/2026","Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 edition (2024 underlying data)","National Association of Realtors Q1 2026 Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability Report","Redfin Ohio statewide market data, March 2026","Ohio REALTORS market summary, December 2025 / full-year 2025","Realtor.com existing-home sales update, May 15, 2026","J.P. Morgan housing affordability research, cited spring 2026","National analysis of Cleveland housing market cost-of-ownership vs. rent, April 2026","Realtor.com 2026 Top Housing Markets (refuge metros) research","U.S. Census ACS 5-year estimates tool (geocoder match failed for Ohio state-level this cycle)"],"summary":"Ohio's housing market enters the week of May 21, 2026 with a familiar tension: record-high prices and persistent inventory shortfalls are driving above-average appreciation statewide, while elevated mortgage rates and a worsening price-to-income ratio are squeezing affordability to its tightest level since 2005. The 30-year fixed rate ticked up 15 basis points week-over-week to 6.51% (Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026), adding roughly $20-$30/month to a typical Ohio mortgage payment versus the prior week. Akron led the entire nation in Q1 2026 home-price growth at 12% year-over-year (NAR). Cleveland's median remains well below national norms at approximately $150,000, attracting in-migration buyers and remote workers. Statewide, Ohio recorded approximately 179,000 home purchases in 2024, a 24% drop from 2019 and the lowest volume since 2014, even as the median price hit a record $198,183. Active listing counts are gradually improving but remain materially below pre-pandemic norms, keeping multiple-offer dynamics alive on well-priced homes across Northeast Ohio's seven core counties.","key_stats":[{"label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"},{"label":"15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"5.85%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"},{"label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (prior week, 5/14/2026)","value":"6.36%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/14/2026"},{"label":"Week-over-week rate change (30-yr fixed)","value":"+15 basis points","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/14 vs. 5/21/2026"},{"label":"Ohio statewide median home price (2024, record high)","value":"$198,183","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Ohio home sales volume (2024)","value":"~179,000 transactions, down 24% vs. 2019","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Ohio price-to-income ratio (2024)","value":"2.6x median household income, worst since 2005","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Ohio statewide median sales price (March 2026, Redfin)","value":"$262,900, up 5.1% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Ohio active listings (March 2026)","value":"37,952, up 4.3% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Ohio months of supply (March 2026)","value":"3.0 months (balanced market = ~6 months)","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Akron Q1 2026 median home-price growth (year-over-year)","value":"+12%, ranked #1 nationally","source":"National Association of Realtors Q1 2026 Metro Report (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"Cleveland approximate median home price","value":"~$150,000","source":"National analysis, April 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"U.S. typical monthly mortgage payment (Q1 2026, 20% down, existing SF home)","value":"$1,979","source":"National Association of Realtors Q1 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"label":"NAR affordability index vs. pre-COVID level","value":"~35% below pre-COVID baseline","source":"J.P. Morgan research cited in Perplexity search"},{"label":"Census demographics tool","value":"State-level Ohio Census data unavailable this cycle (geocoder returned no match for state:39 and 'Ohio')","source":"U.S. Census ACS tool, attempted 5/21/2026"}],"news_items":[{"date":"Spring 2026 (Q1 data released)","source":"National Association of Realtors Q1 2026 Metro Prices Report (via Perplexity search)","headline":"Akron ranks #1 in the U.S. for home-price growth in Q1 2026 at 12% year-over-year, per NAR metro report"},{"date":"2026-05-21","source":"Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey","headline":"Ohio 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 6.51%, highest in two weeks, per Freddie Mac PMMS"},{"date":"2026-05-15","source":"Realtor.com market update, May 15, 2026 (via Perplexity search)","headline":"Realtor.com: National April existing-home sales rise a slim 0.2% to 4.02M annual pace; Midwest and Northeast lead on price growth amid tight supply"},{"date":"2026 (FY 2026 publication)","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)","headline":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment (FY 2026) finds record $198,183 statewide median price alongside worst affordability ratio since 2005"},{"date":"April 2026","source":"National housing cost-of-ownership analysis, April 2026 (via Perplexity search)","headline":"Cleveland flagged in national analysis as a rare market where total ownership cost can still undercut rent, drawing Gen Z and remote workers"}],"notable_changes":["30-year fixed rate rose from 6.36% to 6.51% in a single week (Freddie Mac PMMS 5/14 to 5/21/2026), snapping a period of relative rate stability and resetting affordability calculations for buyers currently under contract or searching.","15-year fixed rate climbed from 5.71% to 5.85% week-over-week, reducing the refinance incentive for move-up sellers who purchased in recent years.","Akron's Q1 2026 ranking as the #1 metro nationally for home-price growth (NAR) marks a notable shift in national attention toward Northeast Ohio, historically overlooked in macro housing coverage.","Ohio statewide listings (37,952 active as of March 2026) show the inventory recovery is real but still incomplete. At 3.0 months of supply, the market is tilted toward sellers despite gradually improving conditions.","The Ohio Housing Needs Assessment's FY 2026 publication crystallized a critical data point: Ohio's price-to-income ratio has not been this strained since 2005, reinforcing that affordability is a structural, not cyclical, challenge for the state."]},"perplexity_calls":2,"census_calls":2,"pmms_calls":1,"tokens_in":6254,"tokens_out":2821,"duration_ms":86621,"created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:13.109975+00:00"},"ideas":[{"id":"4e340a1a-68f2-490d-a1d3-a7a385d95a1f","title":"Akron Is America's Hottest Housing Market — Here's Why That's a Warning Sign, Not Just a Win","description":"Akron's ranking as the #1 metro in the U.S. for home-price appreciation in Q1 2026 sounds like a victory lap for Northeast Ohio. But a closer look reveals a market driven by inventory shortages and relocation demand, not underlying economic expansion. This piece explores the dual reality: what Akron's 12% year-over-year growth means for current homeowners, and why first-time buyers and locals are increasingly priced out of a city long celebrated for affordability. It contextualizes Akron's surge within Ohio's broader affordability crisis, where the statewide price-to-income ratio of 2.6x is the worst since 2005.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Akron Q1 2026 median home-price growth (year-over-year)","value":"+12%, ranked #1 nationally","source":"National Association of Realtors Q1 2026 Metro Report (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio price-to-income ratio (2024)","value":"2.6x median household income, worst since 2005","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio months of supply (March 2026)","value":"3.0 months (balanced market = ~6 months)","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:49.472299+00:00"},{"id":"750cb347-6f00-4ef0-91ba-55fc4c479435","title":"Ohio's Affordability Crisis Just Hit Its Worst Level Since 2005 — What That Means for First-Time Buyers Right Now","description":"Ohio has long been marketed as a refuge from coastal housing costs, but new data from the FY 2026 Ohio Housing Needs Assessment tells a different story. The state's price-to-income ratio of 2.6x is the worst it's been since 2005, and a sudden spike in mortgage rates to 6.51% as of May 21 has compounded the squeeze. This article breaks down the compounding pressures on first-time buyers — rising prices, elevated rates, and insufficient inventory — and offers a frank look at what realistic homeownership paths look like in Ohio's major metros today, including whether Cleveland's ~$150,000 median still represents a meaningful entry point.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio price-to-income ratio (2024)","value":"2.6x median household income, worst since 2005","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"},{"stat":"Cleveland approximate median home price","value":"~$150,000","source":"National analysis, April 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio statewide median home price (2024, record high)","value":"$198,183","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:49.472299+00:00"},{"id":"645197b7-8581-41d9-aade-55f21fdf67cd","title":"Rates Just Jumped 15 Basis Points in One Week — How Ohio Home Buyers Should Respond","description":"Mortgage rates don't move 15 basis points in a week without consequences for buyers in the field. This tactical, agent-facing piece unpacks the real-dollar impact of the Freddie Mac PMMS rate jump from 6.36% to 6.51% on a typical Ohio purchase, recalibrates affordability math at current rate levels, and outlines concrete strategies — rate locks, seller concessions, ARM considerations — that buyers and their agents should be discussing right now. The article also addresses the psychological dimension: how a rate spike mid-search affects buyer behavior and what agents can do to keep transactions on track in Ohio's still-tight 3.0-month supply environment.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Week-over-week rate change (30-yr fixed)","value":"+15 basis points","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/14 vs. 5/21/2026"},{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"},{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (prior week, 5/14/2026)","value":"6.36%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/14/2026"},{"stat":"Ohio months of supply (March 2026)","value":"3.0 months (balanced market = ~6 months)","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:49.472299+00:00"},{"id":"30c6b523-9ad1-415c-8a84-1d0707f40a1a","title":"179,000 Sales and Falling: Why Ohio's Transaction Freeze Matters More Than Rising Prices","description":"Headlines focus on Ohio's record $198,183 median home price, but the more revealing number is volume: approximately 179,000 closings in 2024, a 24% collapse from 2019 levels. This piece argues that the real story of Ohio's housing market is not a price boom but a transaction drought — one that is quietly reshaping local economies, limiting household mobility, and trapping potential move-up sellers in homes that no longer fit their needs. With only 4.3% year-over-year growth in active listings and rates climbing anew, the article examines whether transaction volume has a realistic path back to historical norms and what structural changes — policy, product, or rate environment — would be required to unlock it.","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Ohio home sales volume (2024)","value":"~179,000 transactions, down 24% vs. 2019","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio statewide median home price (2024, record high)","value":"$198,183","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio active listings (March 2026)","value":"37,952, up 4.3% year-over-year","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:49.472299+00:00"},{"id":"b1b8e2af-04e0-4aba-91cb-c1e19ef03614","title":"Cleveland at $150K: The Last Affordable Major Market in America — or a Mirage?","description":"Cleveland's ~$150,000 median home price continues to attract national attention from remote workers, Gen Z buyers, and investors priced out of every other major metro. But affordability is more than a sticker price. This investigative feature scrutinizes whether Cleveland's headline number holds up under the weight of current mortgage rates at 6.51%, Ohio's deteriorating 2.6x price-to-income ratio, and a 3.0-month supply environment that is generating competitive offers even at entry-level price points. It speaks directly to the out-of-state buyer considering a Cleveland relocation and offers a grounded, data-honest answer to the question: is this still the deal it looks like on paper?","supporting_stats":[{"stat":"Cleveland approximate median home price","value":"~$150,000","source":"National analysis, April 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (week of 5/21/2026)","value":"6.51%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS, 5/21/2026"},{"stat":"Ohio price-to-income ratio (2024)","value":"2.6x median household income, worst since 2005","source":"Ohio Housing Needs Assessment, FY 2026 (via Perplexity search)"},{"stat":"Ohio months of supply (March 2026)","value":"3.0 months (balanced market = ~6 months)","source":"Redfin, March 2026 (via Perplexity search)"}],"status":"pending","created_at":"2026-05-25T19:54:49.472299+00:00"}]}